Riding the trAIn

Recently, posts on LinkedIn have started to shift from the binary “OMG AI will change everything” or “OMG AI will ruin everything” to include a tertiary “Gartner Hype Cycle, anyone?” option.

For those unfamiliar with the hype cycle, it follows five basic steps.

Because of OpenAI’s CEO referring to GenAI being a bubble akin to the dot com bubble, it seems articles about GenAI being now in the trough of disillusionment appeared. LinkedIn is also now featuring posts about how this is likely the case and here are the signs.

Perhaps this is true - after all, there was plenty of disappointment after ChatGPT 5 was released and the hype about how different it would be was felt to be overblown by many. Use cases are more often being met with, “But - is that all it can do?” or “But I still have to check everything, because the data could be wrong?”

But there is still plenty of hype in the market research world, I think, as discussions of synthetic data evolve into defined use cases, agentic AI continuing to automate operations for projects continues to be explored, and the combination of “old AI” with GenAI to combine quant and qual analysis in reports is pursued.

Instead of putting all of GenAI on this hype cycle, I would put certain applications of it on the hype cycle. I think the application to qualitative data analysis is potentially in the trough of disillusionment in the industry, as there is only so much summarizing an LLM can do, and humans are still needed to include cultural nuance to interpret data. Application to various types of synthetic data, from audience segments derived from existing data to digital twins of individuals, is probably somewhere still on the peak of inflated expectations. And as GenAI is paired with the neural networks and machine learning that was in place before GenAI was popular, we hit the innovation trigger because there’s a new combination of tech that has new application and thus new promises.

So I think it’s more complicated than it’s all in the trough of disillusionment phase.

Where do I think GenAI sits on the Gartner Hype Cycle? In the traditional two-word response of any experienced researcher: it depends.

Coming soon: scorecards based on my framework developed for organizations to work from when creating their own scorecards when testing market research tech. I’m adapting them to be applicable to small organizations (i.e., pricing friendly to small business; easy to have project folders for multiple customers). An example is here.

Because these take time to fill out, it will take a bit to get the first set of tools that were described in a previous newsletter scorecarded. (It’s a word now.) But I hope to at least help you have a standard set of base criteria applied to these tools, even if the details within each of those criteria are a bit varied based on the type of tool. My intention is for all survey platforms to have the same set of criteria; all AI moderation tools have the same set of criteria; etc.

I’ll be honest - I’m still testing tech promised earlier. Turns out when you’re testing qualitative analysis tools, you need to get through the interviews first… But I can say that if you’re looking for a qualitative analysis tool, Quillit and Flowres.io are both strong options from what I’m finding so far!

In the northern hemisphere, the autumn is arriving. Crisper air, leaves turning from green to reds and oranges that are most often associated with this season. In the southern hemisphere, temperatures are warming, and spring is arriving.

I’m part of a global group of artists, and it’s always fun to see conversation threads happening around the clock. As I’m waking up and starting my day, my friends in Australia are saying good-night, and vice-versa. As some of us complain about the sweltering heat, others are complaining about how cold it is.

And yet, wherever we are in the world, our cares are the same. Our worries, our fears, our wins, our joys - we all have them. More often than not, someone brings up an issue they’re wrestling with, and multiple others are chiming in with stories of wrestling with the same thing or having been through similar situations. Half the time, we talk about what brought us together - art. The other half, it’s all about just being human. And gifs.

So, wherever you happen to be in the world, remember that whatever you’re going through, you’re not the only one. Take care of yourself, reach out to your friends, and share your burdens. You might be surprised to find how many others can relate.